Decoding the Numbers: Does Nigeria's Rebased GDP Signal True Prosperity or Just a New Lens?
News that Nigeria's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has climbed to N373 trillion, positioning it as Africa's 4th largest economy after a recent rebasing, might, at first glance, appear to be an unequivocal sign of economic improvement. For a continent constantly striving for growth and diversification, such figures are often met with optimism. However, for Creative Brief Africa, a deeper dive is necessary. This isn't merely about bigger numbers; it's about understanding what 'rebasing' truly means, its implications for the creative economy, and whether it translates into tangible prosperity for the average Nigerian.
The Power of Rebasing: A Truer Mirror, Not Instant Wealth
GDP rebasing is a standard statistical practice where a country updates the base year used to calculate its economic output. Nigeria's recent rebasing, shifting from 2010 to a new base year of 2019, is not about magically creating new wealth. Instead, it's about providing a more accurate, comprehensive picture of the economy's current structure.
Why does this matter? Over time, economies evolve dramatically. New industries emerge, consumption patterns shift, and technological advancements reshape how goods and services are produced. Nigeria's previous 2010 base year significantly underestimated the contributions of burgeoning sectors. This latest rebasing exercise now incorporates previously underrepresented or excluded sectors such as:
Digital economic activities: This includes the thriving tech startup scene, e-commerce, and fintech.
Creative industries: Sectors like Nollywood, music, fashion, and digital arts, which have experienced explosive growth.
Informal economic activities: A huge part of Nigeria's real economy operates informally, and this rebasing aims for better coverage of this segment, including areas like real estate.
Modular refineries, pension fund administrators, and the National Health Insurance Scheme.
By integrating these dynamic sectors, the rebased GDP figure of N372.82 trillion (or approximately $243 billion for 2024, given recent exchange rates) offers a more realistic reflection of Nigeria's actual economic size and diversification. For example, real estate has notably climbed to third place among economic activities, surpassing crude oil and natural gas, partly due to improved coverage of the informal real estate sector. The Services sector remains the dominant broad sector, contributing a significant 53.09% to GDP in 2019.
The "Better" Question: Beyond Nominal Growth
While the rebased GDP highlights a larger and more diversified economy, the question of whether Nigeria's economy is "getting better" requires a nuanced response for Creative Brief Africa's discerning audience:
Improved Macroeconomic Ratios (On Paper): A larger GDP can improve critical macroeconomic ratios like the debt-to-GDP ratio. For instance, Nigeria's public debt-to-GDP ratio reportedly dropped to 39.4% in Q1 2025 after rebasing, falling below the government's self-imposed 40% limit. This can enhance investor perception and international credit ratings.
Validation of Diversification Efforts: The rebasing technically validates the significant growth in non-oil sectors. Nigeria's non-oil exports, for instance, showed a substantial increase of almost 25% in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024, signaling strong momentum in diversifying away from oil dependency. This supports the narrative of a more resilient, multifaceted economy.
Real vs. Nominal Growth: While the nominal GDP has jumped significantly due to rebasing, it's crucial to look at real GDP growth, which accounts for inflation. Nigeria's real GDP grew by 3.13% in Q1 2025, an improvement from 2.27% in Q1 2024. This indicates genuine, albeit moderate, economic expansion.
The Persistence of Challenges: A larger GDP does not automatically translate to improved living standards for the average citizen. Nigeria still grapples with:
High Inflation: Inflation continues to erode purchasing power, making it difficult for wages to keep pace with the cost of living.
Unemployment and Underemployment: Particularly among youth, these remain significant challenges. While a larger GDP suggests more economic activity, job creation needs to accelerate to absorb the growing workforce.
Poverty: Despite the rebased figures, poverty rates have unfortunately continued to worsen for many Nigerians.
Infrastructure Gaps: Deficiencies in power supply, transportation, and other critical infrastructure still impede productivity and ease of doing business.
The Creative Economy's Seat at the Big Table
For Creative Brief Africa, perhaps the most significant takeaway from this rebasing exercise is the formal recognition of the creative industries' substantial contribution. Nigeria's creative sector, encompassing Nollywood, music, fashion, and digital arts, has been a powerful, yet often undervalued, driver of economic growth.
President Bola Tinubu has affirmed that the creative industry is a significant contributor to GDP, job creation, and economic diversification. While specific, updated figures for the creative industry's percentage contribution post-rebasing are eagerly awaited, previous estimates placed the entertainment industry alone at around 1.45% of GDP. More importantly, the Federal Government has set an ambitious target of increasing Nigeria's GDP by $100 billion through strategic investments in the creative industries by 2030, aiming to grow the sector to $7 billion and create an additional 2.7 million jobs by 2025. This rebasing provides a stronger statistical foundation for these claims and future investments.
The inclusion of the creative sector in the rebased GDP calculation not only highlights its economic muscle but also strengthens the argument for increased institutional investment, intellectual property protection, and infrastructure development within the sector. It officially validates what we at Creative Brief Africa have long championed: that creativity is not just culture, but a formidable economic force.
Conclusion: A Foundation for Strategic Growth
Nigeria's rebased GDP hitting N373 trillion and maintaining its position as Africa's 4th largest economy is a significant statistical development. It paints a more accurate picture of a diversified economy, with non-oil sectors playing an increasingly crucial role.
However, it's a foundation for strategic growth, not a declaration of widespread prosperity. The true "betterment" of Nigeria's economy will be measured not just in larger headline figures, but in how this clearer economic lens is used to address inflation, create sustainable jobs, alleviate poverty, and truly empower the vibrant sectors, like our creative industries, to flourish and uplift the lives of all Nigerians. The rebased GDP provides better data for better policy-making, and that is a crucial step forward.
A guest post by
A curious mind exploring the crossroads of creativity and insight.0